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我国煤矿水害事故特征、预测及防治

Characteristics, prediction and prevention of coal mine water disasters in China

  • 摘要: 为明确2008—2025年间我国煤矿水害事故特征及防治水领域发展历程,本文调研了2008—2025年间我国煤矿发生的水害伤亡事故并对其进行分析预测;同时,以中国知网数据库为基础,利用文献计量工具对我国煤矿防治水研究进展进行了系统性阐述。结果表明:(1)通过对144起煤矿水害伤亡事故(死亡823人)进行分析,揭示了我国煤矿水害伤亡事故的时空分布、出水水源类型、突水发生地点等特征,发现华北和西南地区为事故高发区,老空水是主要出水水源,掘进工作面为事故多发地。(2)追踪调研了我国107起煤矿水害伤亡事故的救援时长情况,发现我国煤矿救援工作具备耗时极不均一、多数耗时较长的特点;(3)构建了自回归差分移动平均模型(ARIMA),并利用其对未来三年我国煤矿事故数量进行预测,结果表明未来三年内,我国煤矿水害事故总体稳定在每年1~2起。(4)我国煤矿防治水领域文献关键词可划分为九大聚类,关键词“物探”、“导水通道”出现频次最多,“物探”与“超前探测”为所有聚类中的前两大聚类;智能化水害监测预警成为最新研究热点;(5)总结分析了我国煤矿防治水领域内的五大矛盾,并给出了解决思路。

     

    Abstract: In order to clarify the characteristics of coal mine water hazard accidents and the development process of water prevention and control in China from 2008 to 2025, water hazard accidents with casualties occurring in Chinese coal mines during this period were investigated, analyzed, and forecasted. Meanwhile, based on the CNKI database, the research progress in the field of coal mine water prevention and control in China was systematically described using bibliometric tools. The results are shown as follows. (1) Through the analysis of 144 water hazard accidents with casualties (resulting in 823 deaths), the spatiotemporal distribution, types of water sources, and locations of water inrush in Chinese coal mines were revealed. It was found that North China and Southwest China are high-incidence areas. Goaf water is identified as the main water source, and heading faces are the most frequent accident sites. (2) The rescue durations of 107 water hazard accidents with casualties in China were tracked and investigated. The rescue work is characterized by extremely uneven time consumption, and most rescue operations require a relatively long duration. (3) An ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was constructed and applied to predict the number of coal mine water hazard accidents in China over the next three years. The prediction results indicate that the number will remain stable at 1-2 accidents per year. (4) The keywords in the literature on coal mine water prevention and control in China can be divided into nine major clusters. The keywords "geophysical prospecting" and "water-conducting channel" appear most frequently. "Geophysical prospecting" and "advanced detection" constitute the two largest clusters among all. Intelligent monitoring and early warning of water hazards have become the newest research focus. (5) Five major contradictions in the field of coal mine water prevention and control in China were summarized and analyzed, and corresponding solutions were proposed.

     

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