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基于数据驱动与可解释性统一框架的岩爆烈度预测方法

A unified data-driven and interpretable framework for predicting rockburst intensity

  • 摘要: 针对深部地下工程中岩爆灾害预测精度与特征可解释性难以统一的问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯优化与科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德网络(bayesian optimization-based Kolmogorov-Arnold network,BO-KAN)的岩爆烈度智能预测方法。通过引入KAN网络结构,以B样条基函数参数化网络连边上的可学习激活函数,并利用其符号化表达能力,构建兼具高精度与强解释性的预测模型。采用BO方法对L1范数、熵正则化及学习率等关键超参数进行自适应寻优,以提升模型泛化能力。基于65组工程数据开展试验验证,结果表明:BO-KAN模型在测试集上准确率达90%,优于多种传统机器学习方法;通过符号化方法提取输入特征中具有统计意义的类别判别函数,系统揭示了抑制、主导、爆发、边缘、极端事件与振荡等6类内蕴机制,实现了数据驱动预测与特征可解释的有机统一,为深部岩爆风险防控提供了新的技术途径。

     

    Abstract: This study proposes a Bayesian optimization-based Kolmogorov-Arnold network (BO-KAN) for rockburst intensity prediction to improve predictive accuracy while preserving feature interpretability in deep underground engineering. The KAN architecture is introduced, with learnable activation functions on the edges parameterized by B-spline basis functions, and its symbolic representation capability is exploited to build a prediction model that is both accurate and interpretable. Bayesian optimization is used to tune key hyperparameters, including the L1 penalty, entropy regularization, and learning rate, thereby enhancing the model’s generalization ability. Experimental validation on 65 engineering cases showed that the BO-KAN model achieved 90% accuracy on the test set and outperformed several conventional machine-learning methods. In addition, symbolic extraction identified statistically meaningful class-discriminant functions from the input features and revealed six intrinsic mechanisms—suppression, dominance, eruption, marginality, extreme events, and oscillation—thereby linking data-driven prediction with feature interpretability. The proposed method offers a new approach to rockburst risk prevention and control in deep underground engineering.

     

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