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基于深度学习的流体注入诱发地震危险区域预测模型——以法国苏尔士EGS工程为例

Deep learning-based prediction of hazard zones for injection-induced seismicity: A case study of Soultz-sous-Forêts EGS project, France

  • 摘要: 流体注入诱发地震严重威胁岩层稳定性以及油气工程、地热能开发、废水处置、碳封存等地下岩石工程安全运行。流体注入诱发地震关键特征的准确预测可显著减轻地震危害。当前诱发地震研究在预测震级、时刻及活动率方面取得了一定成果,但对危险区域预测的研究存在不足。为此,本研究提出了一种基于地震活动强度时空分布特征工程的地震目录处理方法,并构建了基于深度学习的流体注入诱发地震危险区域预测模型。本研究基于法国苏尔士(Soultz-sous-Forêts)增强型地热系统(EGS)项目记录的地震与工程数据,建立了地震活动强度时空分布数据库;结合卷积神经网络(CNN)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)构建了危险区域预测融合模型(CNN-LSTM);选用危险区域预测准确率、地震活动强度预测均方误差、强度峰值区域预测准确率及其误差4个指标对模型进行了性能评估,并与LSTM、ConvLSTM和线性回归3个模型进行了对比。结果表明:地震活动强度时空分布特征工程能够有效简化建模过程,同时保留地震发震时刻、位置及强度等物理信息;CNN-LSTM模型整合了CNN的空间特征提取与LSTM的时序建模优势,在测试集上的危险区域预测准确率达到72.74%,地震活动强度预测均方误差为0.22;与其他3个模型相比,CNN-LSTM模型能够准确提取地震活动强度空间分布特征,在4项性能测试中均表现最优;CNN-LSTM模型学习的危险区域时空演化模式与实际物理规律在统计意义上相符。研究成果对减轻深地工程中诱发地震灾害与保障岩层稳定性具有指导意义。

     

    Abstract: Fluid injection-induced seismicity threatens the safe operation of oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon-storage projects. Accurate prediction of its key characteristics can reduce seismic risk. Previous studies have made progress in forecasting magnitude, timing, and seismicity rate, but research on hazardous-zone prediction remains limited. We propose a seismic catalog processing method based on the spatiotemporal distribution feature engineering of seismic activity intensity. A hybrid CNN-LSTM model is then established, combining the spatial-feature extraction capability of convolutional neural networks with the temporal sequence modeling of long short-term memory networks. Model performance is assessed using four metrics: hazardous-zone accuracy, seismic activity intensity error, and accuracy and error of peak-intensity zone prediction. The results are compared with those from LSTM, ConvLSTM, and linear regression model. Results show that the proposed spatiotemporal distribution feature engineering of seismic activity intensity simplifies the modeling process while preserving essential physical information such as event time, location, and intensity. The CNN-LSTM model achieves an accuracies of 72.74% and a mean squared error of 0.22 for seismic activity intensity prediction on the test set. Compared with the other three models, the CNN-LSTM model can more accurately extract the spatial distribution characteristics of seismic activity intensity and performs best in all four performance metrics. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns of hazardous zones learned by the CNN-LSTM model are statistically consistent with the underlying physical mechanisms governing induced seismicity. These findings demonstrate that integrating spatial and temporal information provides a more reliable approach for forecasting seismic hazardous zones during fluid injection.

     

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