高级检索

榆神府矿区多煤层重复采动覆岩裂隙带高度预测研究

Study on height prediction of overburden fracture zone under repeated mining of multi-coal seams in Yushenfu mining area

  • 摘要: 榆神府矿区煤层埋深浅、上覆基岩薄、松散层厚, 多数矿井涉及多煤层重复采动, 受煤层采高、间距等多因素影响, 上下采场围岩空间相互作用, 导致裂隙带高度难以精准预测。以榆神府矿区典型煤矿多煤层重复采动裂隙带高度为研究对象, 采用物理相似模拟、理论分析以及深度学习相结合的方法, 分析了多煤层重复采动裂隙发育规律, 构建了煤层采高、间距、埋深、倾角、工作面长度及间隔岩层坚固性系数与裂隙带高度的多因素耦合非线性回归模型, 建立了基于SSA-BP神经网络的多煤层重复采动裂隙带高度预测方法, 并验证了其准确性。研究结果表明: 瓷窑塔煤矿重复采动下裂隙发育呈现“局部缓慢增长—贯通非线性跃升—动态稳定”三阶段特征, 最终裂隙带发育高度为139.0 m; 煤层采高、间距、间隔岩层坚固性系数及工作面长度耦合下的非线性回归模型拟合系数R2为0.880, 为裂隙带发育高度关键影响因素; 对比传统经验公式与BP模型预测结果, SSA-BP模型预测MAPE值分别降低了22.96%、6.70%, RMSE值低至1.79, 稳定性更优; 以榆神府矿区中汇富能煤矿14205工作面为验证模型, 预测高度与实测高度相对误差为1.3%, 小于5%。研究对榆神府矿区多煤层开采导水裂隙带高度预测具有较强普适性, 可为该矿区多煤层开采水害防治提供有益借鉴。

     

    Abstract: The Yushenfu mining area is characterized by shallow coal seams, thin overlying bedrock, and thick loose layers, and most mines in this mining area involve repeated mining of multiple coal seams. Affected by multiple factors such as coal seam mining height and spacing, the spatial interaction of surrounding rock in the upper and lower stopes makes it challenging to accurately predict fracture zone height. In this paper, the fracture zone height under multi-coal seam repeated mining in typical coal mines in the Yushenfu mining area was taken as the research object, and the research methods of physical similarity simulation, theoretical analysis, and deep learning were used. First, the fracture development law under multi-coal seam repeated mining was analyzed. Subsequently, a multi-factor coupling nonlinear regression model was established to describe the relationship between the fracture zone height and key parameters, including coal seam mining height, spacing, burial depth, dip angle, working face length, and interval rock strength. On this basis, the prediction method of fracture zone height under multi-coal seam repeated mining based on the SSA-BP neural network was established, and its accuracy was verified. The results indicate that the fracture development under repeated mining in Ciyaota Coal Mine exhibits a three-stage characteristic, i.e., localized slow growth, nonlinear rapid increase through interconnection, and dynamic stabilization. The ultimate height of the fracture zone reaches 139.0 m. The nonlinear regression model incorporating the coupled effects of coal seam mining height, interlayer spacing, strength of intervening rock strata, and working face length achieves an R2 value of 0.880, confirming these parameters as key influencing factors for the fracture zone height. Compared to predictions from traditional empirical formulas and the BP model, the SSA-BP model demonstrates reductions in MAPE values by 22.96% and 6.70%, respectively, and attains a low RMSE of 1.79, indicating superior stability. Validation at the 14205 working face of Zhonghui Funeng Coal Mine in the Yushenfu mining area shows a relative error of 1.3% between the predicted and measured heights, well below 5%. The study demonstrates strong generalizability for predicting the height of water-conducting fracture zones under multi-coal seam repeated mining in the Yushenfu mining area and provides valuable insights for water hazard prevention and control under such mining conditions.

     

/

返回文章
返回