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榆神府矿区多煤层重复采动覆岩裂隙带高度预测研究

Study on height prediction of overburden fracture zone under repeated mining of multi-coal seams in Yushenfu mining area

  • 摘要: 榆神府矿区煤层埋深浅、上覆基岩薄、松散层厚,多数矿井涉及多煤层重复采动,受煤层采厚、间距等多因素影响,上下采场围岩空间相互作用,导致裂隙带高度难以精准预测。本文以榆神府矿区典型煤矿多煤层重复采动裂隙带高度为研究对象,采用物理相似模拟、理论分析以及深度学习相结合的研究方法,分析了多煤层重复采动裂隙发育规律,构建了煤层采厚、间距、埋深、倾角、工作面长度及间隔岩层强度与裂隙带高度的多因素耦合非线性回归模型,建立了基于SSA-BP神经网络的多煤层重复采动裂隙带高度预测方法,并验证了其准确性。研究结果表明:瓷窑塔煤矿重复采动下裂隙发育呈现“局部缓慢增长-贯通非线性跃升-动态稳定”三阶段特征,最终裂隙带发育高度为139.0 m;煤层采厚、间距、间隔岩层强度及工作面长度耦合下的非线性回归模型拟合系数R2为0.880,为裂隙带发育高度关键影响因素;对比传统经验公式与BP模型预测结果,SSA-BP模型预测MAPE值分别降低了22.96%、6.70%,RMSE值低至1.79,稳定性更优;以榆神府矿区中汇富能煤矿14205工作面为验证模型,预测高度与实测高度相对误差为1.3%,小于5%。研究对榆神府矿区多煤层开采导水裂隙带高度预测具有较强普适性,可为该矿区多煤层开采水害防治提供有益借鉴。

     

    Abstract: The coal seam in Yushenfu mining area is shallow, the overlying bedrock is thin, and the loose layer is thick. Most mines involve repeated mining of multiple coal seams. Affected by multiple factors such as coal seam mining thickness and spacing, the spatial interaction of surrounding rock in the upper and lower stopes makes it difficult to accurately predict fracture zone height. In this paper, the height of multi-coal seam repeated mining fracture zone in typical coal mines in Yushenfu mining area is taken as the research object. The research methods of physical similarity simulation, theoretical analysis and deep learning are used to analyze the development law of multi-coal seam repeated mining fracture. The multi-factor coupling nonlinear regression model of coal seam mining thickness, spacing, burial depth, dip angle, working face length and interval rock strength and fracture zone height is constructed. The prediction method of multi-coal seam repeated mining fracture zone height based on SSA-BP neural network is established, and its accuracy is verified. The results indicated that the fracture development under repeated mining exhibited a three-stage characteristic: "localized slow growth - nonlinear rapid increase through interconnection - dynamic stabilization." The ultimate height of the fractured zone reached 139.0 m. A nonlinear regression model incorporating coal seam mining height, interlayer spacing, strength of intervening rock strata, and working face length achieved an R2 value of 0.880, confirming these parameters as key influencing factors for the development height of the fractured zone. Compared to predictions from traditional empirical formulas and the BP model, the SSA-BP model demonstrated reductions in MAPE values by 22.96% and 6.70%, respectively, with an RMSE as low as 1.79, indicating superior stability. Validation at the 14205 working face of the Zhonghui Funeng Coal Mine in the Yushenfu Mining Area showed a relative error between the predicted and measured heights of 1.3%, which was less than 5%. The study demonstrated strong generalizability for predicting the height of water-conducting fracture zones in multi-coal seam mining in the Yushenfu Mining Area, providing valuable insights for water hazard prevention and control in such mining conditions.

     

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