基于自适应集成学习的煤矿微震时序预测模型
Time series prediction model of microseismicity in coal mine based on adaptive ensemble learning
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摘要: 针对煤矿微震时序预测问题, 数据驱动的深度学习模型能够有效提取微震数据中的关键特征和规律, 从而实现精准预测。然而, 由于工况条件随工作面的推进不断变化, 这使得微震事件的成因复杂且分布无序, 单一预测模型学习局部时序特征的方式难以维持稳定而准确的预测效果, 且对回采初期无法预测。为提高煤矿微震时序预测的稳定性、完整性和准确性, 利用海量微震数据, 分析了不同工作面、同一工作面不同开采阶段之间的微震时序特征。通过Adaptive-dickey-fuller (ADF)平稳性检验和波动性分析, 明确了事件成因对微震时序特征的显著影响, 构建了对应不同事件成因主导下的多种微震时序数据集。利用Blending集成学习算法, 结合一维卷积神经网络(1D-CNN)和双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM), 提出了一种基于自适应集成学习的煤矿微震时序预测模型。依托赵楼煤矿7302工作面微震数据, 使用集成模型对微震每日最大能量、平均能量和频次进行预测, 并针对每日最大能量进行了详细的对比分析。结果表明: 在保证预测完整性的前提下(预测时长为600 d), 本文提出的集成模型能够较好地适应事件成因复杂多变、无序分布的实际情况, 预测结果与实际监测值误差较小, 各参量拟合优度计算结果均在0.8以上。研究成果可为煤矿微震时序预测提供新思路和借鉴。Abstract: In time series prediction of microseismicity in coal mines, data-driven deep learning model can effectively extract key features and rules of microseismic data, and achieve accurate prediction. However, due to the constant change of working conditions with the advance of working face, the causes of microseismic events are complex and disordered. It is difficult for a single prediction model to learn local time series features to maintain a stable and accurate prediction, and it is impossible to predict the initial stage of mining. To improve the stability, completeness and accuracy of time series prediction of microseismicity in coal mine, the time series characteristics of microseismicity of different working faces and different mining stages of the same working face were analyzed by using massive microseismic data. Based on adaptive-dickey-fuller(ADF) stationarity and volatility tests, the significant influence of event causes on microseismic timing characteristics was identified, and multiple microseismic timing data sets were constructed under different event causes. Using blending integration learning algorithm and combining one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN) and bidi-rectional short- and long-term memory network (BiLSTM), a timing prediction model of coal mine microseismicity based on adaptive ensemble learning was proposed. Based on the microseismic data of 7302 working face in Zhaolou Coal Mine, the daily maximum energy, average energy and frequency of microseismic are predicted by the integrated model, and the daily maximum energy is analyzed in detail. The results show that on the premise of ensuring the integrity of prediction, the proposed integrated model can better adapt to the actual situation of complex, variable and disordered distribution of event causes. The error between the prediction and field monitoring values is small, and the goodness of fit calculation results of each parameter is above 0.8. The research provides a new idea for the time series prediction of microseismicity in coal mines.